99 Tekno – The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) is poised for a volatile week, with experts forecasting a limited technical rebound. Trading activity is expected to be particularly sensitive as the market operates on a shortened three-day schedule due to the Eid al-Adha national holiday.
The local bourse is coming off a grueling week. During the period of May 18–22, 2026, the composite index faced intense selling pressure, plummeting 8.35% to close at 6,162.045. At its lowest point, the index even touched 5,966, marking a new low for the year.
Brigita Kinari, an Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), noted that the sharp decline was primarily driven by a widespread risk-off sentiment among investors.
Read Also: IHSG Closes Higher at 6,206 as 470 Stocks Enter the Green Zone
From an external perspective, the market remains overshadowed by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, as expectations persist that interest rates will remain elevated for longer than anticipated. Domestically, the situation was further complicated by Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hike its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, sparking fears of tightening economic liquidity.
Investor anxiety was also heightened by the government’s plan to implement a “one-gate” export policy for strategic commodities. However, market sentiment saw a brief reprieve late last week.
Read Also: Analyst Picks: Top Stocks to Watch as IHSG Faces Potential Further Correction
“Rumors suggesting a delay of this policy until January 1, 2027, triggered a significant rebound toward the end of the week, particularly within the basic materials and energy sectors,” Brigita explained on Monday, May 25, 2026.
Amid a cautious wait-and-see approach regarding the FTSE Russell review, foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp309.52 billion by the week’s end.
Read Also: Stock Recommendations and IHSG Movement Outlook for Monday, May 25, 2026
This wave of selling resulted in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) market capitalization shrinking by 10.06% to Rp10,635 trillion. Interestingly, the average daily transaction value rose by 15.68% to Rp21.77 trillion, signaling high levels of portfolio repositioning activity among traders.
Looking ahead, Brigita highlighted that domestic attention will focus on the implementation of the one-gate export policy through Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI), which is reportedly still set to take effect on June 1, 2026. On a brighter note, market sentiment has been bolstered by a constructive FTSE Russell review, and BI’s rate hike is beginning to show a positive stabilizing effect on the Rupiah.
From a technical standpoint, the IHSG is currently trading well below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-50) of 7,166, suggesting that the medium-term bearish trend remains dominant. With the MACD indicator staying in negative territory, the recent gains are viewed as a temporary bounce.
“The recent strengthening is still categorized as a technical rebound and has yet to confirm a major trend reversal,” Brigita concluded.
In the short term, the IHSG is expected to move sideways with high volatility, fluctuating between support levels of 5,996–5,899 and resistance levels of 6,318–6,459. Selling pressure may begin to subside once the rebalancing period concludes, provided the Rupiah remains stable and ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations help alleviate global energy price pressures.
IPOT’s Top Stock Recommendations for the Week:
PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk. (MDKA)
– Recommendation: Buy
– Entry: 2,720
– Target Price: 3,000
– Stop Loss: 2,610
PT Bank BTPN Tbk. (BTPN)
– Recommendation: Buy
– Entry: 2,380
– Target Price: 2,530
– Stop Loss: 2,310
PT Ultra Jaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk. (ULTJ)
– Recommendation: Buy
– Entry: 1,635
– Target Price: 1,725
– Stop Loss: 1,590
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investment decisions rest solely with the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains resulting from investment decisions made based on this content.
Summary
The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) is forecast for a limited technical rebound during a volatile, shortened trading week. The index recently experienced a significant 8.35% decline, closing at 6,162.045 and reaching a new year-low, driven by widespread risk-off sentiment, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, and Bank Indonesia’s rate hike. While a rumored delay in the government’s one-gate export policy offered a brief reprieve, foreign investors recorded net selling, and market capitalization decreased.
Technically, the IHSG remains in a medium-term bearish trend, with recent gains viewed as a temporary rebound rather than a major reversal. Domestic focus will be on the one-gate export policy’s anticipated implementation on June 1, 2026, though a positive FTSE Russell review and Rupiah stability offer some support. For the week, analysts recommend buying shares of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk. (MDKA), PT Bank BTPN Tbk. (BTPN), and PT Ultra Jaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk. (ULTJ).