JAKARTA – Despite the ongoing slump in the Indonesian stock market, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under the Danantara umbrella are showing relative resilience. While the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) has suffered a decline of 29.11% year-to-date (YTD), the IDXBUMN20 index—which tracks major state-run firms—has performed comparatively better, recording a decline of 11.73% YTD.
Marolop Alfred Nainggolan, Head of Research at Praus Capital, notes that the significant drop in the JCI is largely driven by sharp corrections in conglomerate stocks, which have been hit hard by adverse market sentiment and MSCI rebalancing. “The stock price decline is widespread, meaning that SOE shares have retreated alongside the broader market,” he explained.
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Harry Su, Managing Director of Research at Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia, points out that the decline in the IDXBUMN20 index is primarily fueled by foreign outflows, a weakening rupiah, and investor uncertainty regarding state-owned policy shifts. These concerns include the evolving role of Danantara and potential changes to how SOE dividends are allocated.
Although SOE stocks have outperformed the broader index, analysts caution that this does not necessarily make the entire sector attractive. “The correction tends to open opportunities for selective buying in SOEs that demonstrate strong fundamentals, clear dividend visibility, and concrete catalysts,” Harry added.
Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, the performance of the IDXBUMN20 index will likely remain tethered to macroeconomic challenges, including a soft rupiah, rising oil prices, and the prevailing high-interest rate environment set by Bank Indonesia.
Alfred suggests that beyond the banking and commodity sectors, telecommunications remains a viable option for investors. However, he warns that other sectors continue to face heavy headwinds. “For instance, the pharmaceutical and cement sectors are struggling with currency depreciation and rising energy costs, while the state-run construction firms continue to navigate operational difficulties,” he noted.
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In a bearish market, dividends have become a primary consideration for investors. However, experts emphasize that long-term potential lies elsewhere. “Once the market enters a recovery phase, the potential returns from capital gains will far outweigh the initial dividend yields,” Alfred explained. He highlights that SOEs in the banking and commodity sectors typically maintain high dividend payout ratios (DPR), which, combined with price recovery, could significantly boost total returns for investors.
Harry holds a mixed view on the outlook for SOEs for the rest of 2026. While attractive valuations, dividend potential, and government spending serve as positive catalysts, risks such as policy uncertainty, currency pressure, and potential government intervention remain significant concerns.
For investors seeking opportunities outside of banking and commodities, Harry identifies PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (TLKM), PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR), and PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) as top picks. “Each of these companies possesses recurring income, clear operational recovery catalysts, and a solid growth outlook,” he stated.
Reflecting this confidence, Harry issues a buy recommendation for TLKM, JSMR, and ELSA, with target prices set at Rp 3,700, Rp 4,476, and Rp 1,081 per share, respectively.
Summary
Despite a significant decline in the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) this year, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under the Danantara umbrella have shown relative resilience compared to the broader market. Analysts attribute the current volatility to foreign outflows, a weakening rupiah, and investor uncertainty regarding policy shifts. While the sector faces ongoing macroeconomic challenges, experts suggest that selective buying of firms with strong fundamentals remains a viable strategy.
Market analysts currently favor stocks like Telkom Indonesia, Jasa Marga, and Elnusa due to their recurring income and potential for operational recovery. Although dividends provide a cushion in a bearish market, investors are encouraged to look toward future capital gains as the sector stabilizes. However, risks such as high interest rates, currency depreciation, and regulatory uncertainties continue to dictate the cautious outlook for the remainder of 2026.