JAKARTA – Shares of Indonesian commodity-based companies—specifically in coal, nickel, and palm oil—remain under significant pressure as the government moves toward implementing a single export agency policy. Despite the framework for this new entity not yet being finalized, uncertainty surrounding the governance overhaul set for June 2026 has rattled investor confidence.
According to a research note released by CGS Sekuritas analyst Hadi Soegiarto on May 26, 2026, stock prices in these sectors have declined by approximately 12% to 29% since April 30, 2026. While the market saw a brief recovery on May 22, the prevailing trend remains bearish.
“The market has already priced in a significant risk premium due to the abundance of variables that remain unresolved,” Hadi wrote. “We expect volatility to persist as more details regarding policy implementation emerge.”
Foreign Investors Offload IDR 8.54 Trillion in Late May 2026, Check Out the Heavily Traded Stocks
This policy represents a major government initiative to centralize the export of Indonesia’s three primary commodities: coal, nickel, and crude palm oil (CPO). Based on 2025 data, these exports are valued at approximately US$69 billion, accounting for roughly one-quarter of Indonesia’s total export value.
During the first phase, spanning from June 1 to August 31, 2026, companies will continue to operate under their existing export permits. However, all export declaration documents (PEB) must now designate PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) as the official exporter. The second phase is scheduled to begin on September 1, 2026, with potential for an extended transition period depending on field readiness.
Hadi emphasizes that the early months of the second phase will be critical for investors to monitor pricing schemes, margins, and potential risks regarding contract or payment delays.
Technical challenges have also surfaced, particularly regarding commodity classification. Following a Reuters report on May 22, 2026, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto clarified that while ferronickel (FeNi) will fall under the new scheme, nickel pig iron (NPI) will be excluded. The challenge, Hadi noted, lies in the fact that both products share the same Harmonized System (HS) code—7202.60.00—which will require complex administrative adjustments at the customs level.
“Products exported through DSI will follow global HS codes, but separating NPI from FeNi remains a hurdle given their identical classification,” explained Hadi.
Oil Prices Plummet Nearly 2% as Market Awaits US-Iran Ceasefire Deal
CGS Sekuritas has also identified several remaining grey areas, including potential adjustments to export selling prices, the commission margins the new agency might impose, and the efficiency of the new payment and re-negotiation systems. Furthermore, there is a risk that the implementation timeline could be delayed due to the massive scope of the project and a relatively narrow preparation window.
In theory, centralizing exports through DSI could strengthen Indonesia’s bargaining power in global commodity markets. However, Hadi cautions that the success of this strategy is entirely dependent on effective execution amidst fierce competition in the coal, nickel, and palm oil sectors.
“While export consolidation could theoretically improve Indonesia’s global leverage, it will only yield results if the implementation is seamless and effective,” he said.
Given the current climate of uncertainty, CGS Sekuritas advises investors to remain highly selective. The firm views the oil and gas, gold, and nickel sectors as more attractive compared to coal and CPO. Consequently, CGS Sekuritas maintains a preference for stocks including BBNI, MEDC, EXCL, ARCI, CMRY, HMSP, GGRM, and WIIM. Conversely, DSNG and TAPG have been removed from the firm’s top picks due to the rising policy risks within the CPO sector.
Plaza Indonesia (PLIN) Secures IDR 4.7 Trillion Loan, Pledges Thamrin Property as Collateral
Summary
Indonesian commodity stocks in coal, nickel, and palm oil face significant market pressure and volatility due to the upcoming implementation of a centralized export agency policy scheduled for June 2026. This initiative requires exporters to route shipments through PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, creating uncertainty regarding operational procedures, administrative classification hurdles, and potential impacts on profit margins. Investors are reacting cautiously to these unresolved variables, leading to a notable decline in share prices throughout the affected sectors.
In response to this uncertain environment, CGS Sekuritas advises investors to maintain a selective approach by prioritizing the oil, gas, gold, and nickel sectors over coal and crude palm oil. While the new export framework is intended to strengthen Indonesia’s global bargaining power, its ultimate success depends on seamless execution and administrative efficiency. Consequently, the firm has updated its top stock picks to include companies like BBNI, MEDC, and ARCI, while removing those with higher policy-related risks.